U.S. Chamber economist: Get ready for another recession - Business First of Buffalo:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’ree actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economhy grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’d Marty Regalia. He predicts the current economifc downturn will endaround September, but the unemploymenyt rate will remain high through the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usuall does after a Regalia said. Inflation, however, looms as a potentialp problem because of thefederal government’se huge budget deficits and the massive amounty of dollars pumped into the economy by the Federal he said.
If this stimulus is not unwoun once the economy beginsto recover, higher interest rates coulds choke off improvement in the housing market and businesxs investment, he said. “The economy has got to be runninfg on its own by the middld ofnext year,” Regalia said. Almosr every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was preceded by heavy debt he noted. The chances of a double-dil recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairman of the Federal Regalia said. If President Barack Obama appoints his economicd adviser Larry Summers to chairthe Fed, that would signalo the monetary spigot would remain open for a longer time, he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamwa administrationis “not something the markets want to see,” Regaliw said. Obama has declined to say whether he willreappoiny Bernanke, whose term ends in February. more than half of small business ownersd expect the recession to last at leasy anothertwo years, according to a survey of Intuit Payroll customers. But 61 percent expectt their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilities, but bearishj on the factors they can’t said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for Intuift Employee Management Solutions. “Even in the gloomiest economy therwe are opportunitiesto seize.
” A separate survey of smalo business owners by Discover Financial Servicesw found that 57 percent thought the economy was gettingh worse, while 26 percent thought the economgy was improving. More than half plannex to decrease spending on business development in the nextsix